When you open your electricity bill, you’re not thinking about billion-dollar government projects or transmission lines stretching across Victoria. You’re thinking about whether you can afford the jump from last quarter, or why heating your home this winter suddenly feels like a luxury. Yet behind those bill shocks are big policy decisions—like the Victorian Government’s $7.9 billion renewable energy transmission plan.

On paper, the pitch is simple: build massive new infrastructure, connect more wind and solar projects to the grid, and over time, bring prices down. The government says households could save about $20 a year on their bills, and businesses around $50.

But here’s where it gets tricky. For every promise of cheaper bills and greener energy, there are critics warning that households may actually end up footing the bill—and in some scenarios, paying a lot more than they bargained for. Some energy analysts suggest the true cost could balloon well beyond $7.9 billion, with potential household bills even doubling in the process.

So, will this ambitious plan actually lower your power bill, or is it another case of “jam tomorrow” while families pay more today?

What Does the Plan Actually Propose?

The blueprint, driven by VicGrid and the Victorian Government, is a 15-year roadmap aimed at phasing out coal by 2035. It involves setting up six renewable energy zones across Victoria—spanning up to 8 per cent of the state’s land area—and building the transmission lines needed to connect them to homes and businesses.

It’s essentially about creating the “backbone” for a future powered by wind, solar, and battery storage. Without it, renewable projects may not reach households at scale.

The Promise: Lower Bills and Greener Energy

The government’s case is clear: this project will unlock cheaper, cleaner electricity. With more renewable energy feeding into the grid, wholesale prices should drop, and households should benefit over the long term. The official modelling points to around $20 in annual savings for households and $50 for businesses.

Environmentally, the plan aligns with Victoria’s ambitious renewable energy targets—40 per cent by 2025 and scaling up well beyond that in the next decade. For policymakers, it’s both an environmental milestone and a cost-of-living solution.

The Criticism: Is $7.9B Worth It?

Not everyone’s convinced. Critics argue that the price tag could far outweigh the benefits—especially for households already struggling with cost-of-living pressures.

• A Herald Sun report found that upfront costs could see bills increase by $14 for households and $34 for businesses before any savings arrive (Herald Sun).
• Tony Wood of the Grattan Institute warns that promising “lower bills” is misleading—at best, the project makes bills less high than they otherwise might have been.
• Bruce Mountain from Victoria University has gone further, calling the modelling “nonsense” and suggesting the real cost could reach $28 billion, with the risk that household bills could even double.

The central issue? The government’s modelling assumes stable rollout costs and smooth adoption of renewable energy. Critics believe those assumptions are too optimistic.

What It Means for Victorian Households

For everyday households, the question isn’t whether the plan looks good on paper—it’s whether you’ll see savings on your bill. A $20 per year saving sounds nice, but for many families facing quarterly bills of $600 to $1,000, that’s a drop in the ocean.

In fact, if upfront infrastructure costs are passed on quickly, the short-term picture could mean higher bills before any long-term relief. And with rooftop solar already providing cheaper power for many households, some wonder whether decentralised solutions might be more effective than pouring billions into transmission lines.

The Bigger Picture

It’s worth noting that Victoria is making progress on renewables regardless. In 2023–24, renewables already supplied 37.8 per cent of the state’s electricity, with strong growth expected in the next two years. The government has also revived the State Electricity Commission, committing $1 billion to develop 4.5GW of new renewable and storage capacity.

The question is whether a $7.9 billion transmission plan is the smartest way to accelerate that momentum—or if the cost risks outweigh the potential savings.

What You Can Do Right Now

While governments debate and infrastructure plans take decades to deliver, households can take practical steps immediately:

• Compare energy plans regularly. Switching providers or tariffs often saves much more than the $20 projected by this plan.
• Invest in efficiency—from appliances to insulation, small changes reduce reliance on grid power.
• Explore solar and batteries if feasible. Rooftop solar remains one of the most effective ways to cut bills long-term.

Conclusion: Big Promises, Bigger Questions

Victoria’s $7.9 billion renewable transmission plan is ambitious and, in many ways, necessary for a cleaner energy future. But for households, the promise of cheaper bills may not hold up under scrutiny. The reality could be higher bills now, with only modest relief down the line.

If you’re worried about your next bill, the surest savings won’t come from waiting for government projects to play out—they’ll come from comparing, switching, and making smart energy choices today. For both residential and commercial energy plan comparison, visit Compare Your Bills. We help you find the cheapest energy provider for your home or office.